總統大選預測

距離總統大選只有19天, 讓我在這裏清楚的寫出我的預測.

我預測特朗普將順利連任成功, 他的選舉人票數可能比四年前306票高出10-25票.有可能增加的搖擺州包括:明尼蘇達州(10張選舉人票)、內華達州(6)、新墨西哥州(5)和New Hampshire州(4)。

以上推測是與民意調查背道而馳(四年前也是如此), 絕大部分民意調查說拜登領先特朗普, 有個別民意調查甚至說領先幅度達到16%, 情況與四年前相近, 這是民主黨再一次透過有問題的民調企圖去令特朗普的支持者放棄投票. 這種伎倆四年前行不通, 四年後更是行不通.

特朗普將勝出的原因如下:

1. 經過四年排山倒海的迫害(使用的手段絕對違法), 包括因一通電話便進行彈劾, 特朗普在經濟,外交,軍事,能源自給自足,邊境防禦,委任法官等有良好政職, 不論民主黨如何用疫情去打擊他, 甚至個別州份拒絕重新開放, 特朗普的支持者(包括在多個搖擺州)有增無減. 我估計他選票會由6,300萬增加至6,500萬, 其中包括黑人選票將會加倍, 西裔選票將會增加30%. 一直我都認為民調低估了特朗普大約6%, 其實目前他在大部分搖擺州是領先的.

2. 特朗普的競選大會萬人空巷, 情緒高昂, 我從未見到集會中參加者自動高呼:「我們愛你」(We love you). 反觀拜登集會參加者寥寥可數, 上星期四在阿里桑拿州一個集會中竟然食白果, 一個參加者都沒有. 投票給拜登的除了傳統的民主黨員之外, 都是不喜歡特朗普的人, 很少人真的因為喜歡拜登, 賀錦麗支持者甚少, 連民主黨內喜歡他的寥寥可數, 即使她能夠拉攏一些極左翼(桑德斯支持者)的選票, 也會令拜登失去較為保守的民主黨選票. 沒有候選人能夠在選民如此缺乏熱情的情況下勝出.

3. 今次兩黨政綱南轅北轍, 美國人了解到是自由民主的資本主義對決一黨專政的社會主義, 也了解到只有特朗普才可以防止美國進入社會主義甚至共產主義, 因此許多本來不參與投票的群眾洶湧而出, 支持特朗普的「沉默大多數」(Silent Majority)的力量會比四年前更厲害.

4. 特朗普最近感染新冠病毒, 令支持者慎重地考慮是否有人可以替代他, 結論是:沒有人有他的精力和戰鬥力去應付國內外錯綜複雜的形勢, 所以他的病情沒有令他失去支持度. 他迅速復原之後支持者更擁護他.

5. 副總統候選人一場辯論讓人看到誰更有資格成為總統, 沒有人認為賀錦麗有資格成為總統, 以拜登的身體和精神狀況, 選拜登等於是選賀錦麗當總統, 賀錦麗如何能夠戰勝特朗普?

6. 目前美國人對中共持負面看法的人佔大多數,特朗普早已經擺明姿態與中共脫鈎,反而拜登和賀錦麗因從中共獲得大量財富而對中共態度曖昧,必定因此失票。

7. 特朗普將獲得大多數基督徒和天主教徒的支持,美國人口幾乎一半是基督徒和天主教徒。

當然,民主黨透過郵寄選票可以作弊,也可以令到十一月三日無法立即知道誰當選,但這並不會改變特朗普將成功連任。

My Presidential Election Forecast

There are only 19 days before the presidential election. Let me state my predictions here.

I predict that Trump will be re-elected, and his electoral votes may be 10-25 votes higher than the 306 votes from four years ago. Swing states that may be added include: Minnesota (10 electoral votes), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5) and New Hampshire (4).

The above prediction is contrary to public opinion polls (the same was true four years ago). Most public opinion polls have Biden ahead of Trump. Some opinion polls even show Biden leading by 16%. The situation is similar to four years ago. This is the Democrats once again trying to use questionable polls to discourage Trump supporters so they would abandon their votes. This tactic did not work four years ago, and it will not work four years later.

The reasons why Trump will win are as follows:

1. After four years of overwhelming persecution (the methods used are absolutely illegal), including impeachment due to a phone call, Trump has considerable accomplishments in economic, , foreign relations, military, energy self-sufficiency, border defense, appointment of judges, etc., Regardless of how the Democrats used the pandemic to smear him, and blue states refused to reopen to hurt Trump, his supporters (including those in multiple swing states) have not left him. I estimate that his popular votes will increase from 63 million to 65 million, of which black votes will be doubled and Hispanic votes will increase by 30%. I always think that the polls have underestimated Trump’s support by about 6%. In fact, he is currently leading in most swing states.

2. Trump’s campaign rallies are packed, with more people not being able to enter the arena than those who got in. The mood is high. I have never seen the participants in the rally chant “We love you" . On the other hand, there are very few participants in the Biden’s rallies. Last Thursday in Arizona Biden’s rally had zero participants. Except for the traditional Democrats, those who vote for Biden are mostly people who do not like Trump. Few people really like Biden, and less people like Harris who garnered no more than 2% support from her own party in the primary. Even if she can win some votes from the extreme left (Sanders supporters), it will cause Biden to lose the more conservative Democratic votes. No politician can win with such a lack of enthusiasm.

3. This time the two parties’ political platforms are very different. Americans understand that it is freedom, democracy and capitalism versus one-party dictatorship and socialism. They also understand that only Trump can prevent the United States from entering socialism or even communism. Many who did not vote will come out and vote, The support from Trump’s “Silent Majority” will be stronger than it was four years ago.

4. Trump recently contracted Coronavirus, and it caused many of his supporters to consider whether someone else could replace him. The conclusion is that no one has his energy and power to deal with the complex situations at home and abroad. His illness did not make him lose support, and after his rapid and full recovery supporters cherish him even more.

5. The vice presidential debate that allows people to see who is more qualified to be president. No one thinks Harris is qualified to be president. With Biden’s shaky physical and mental condition, a vote for Biden is a vote for Harris to be president. How can Harris beat Trump?

6. At present, the majority of Americans hold negative views of the CCP. Trump has already made it clear that he is going to inflict pain on CCP even to the point of delinking. On the contrary, Biden and Harris have exhibited wavering attitude towards the CCP because of their wealth from the CCP. This will result in loss of votes for them.

7. Trump will have the support of most Christians and Catholics. Almost half of the American population is Christians and Catholics.

Of course, the Democratic Party can cheat by mail-in votes, and it can also make it impossible to know who wins the election on November 3。 But this will not change Trump’s re-election.

Sau-Wing Lam
Oct 14, 2020